Black swan (Penguin)

The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. 'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday 'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers aby the unexpected * Guardian * Like the conversation of a raconteur... Hugely enjoyable - compelling * Financial Times * It has altered modern thinking * The Times * Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot * Sunday Times * The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works -- Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow Great fun... Brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling -- Stephen J. Dubner, co-author of Freakonomics The most prophetic voice of all * GQ *